Jeopardy – Can You See it? – Iran vs Nigeria

I had to write this post for several reasons. Many of us are about to get poorer – without casting and binding, I ask that you hear me out first. If you don’t watch the news, let me help you out, I do. If you do watch the news, in lay mans terms – Iran’s blessing will become Nigeria’s downfall. Lets examine this and lets discuss ways we can possibly insulate ourselves and the nation as a whole – I doubt those people ( Nigerian Leaders) really care, but i will lay out the facts to the best of my ability – I am no economist, but years in economic research and common sense have resulted in certain deductions.

1. Iran is a significant oil producer in the world – it is number 3 for proven oil reserves in the world and number 2 for proven gas resolves in the world.

2. Iran has enough oil to supply China for the next 40 years. China and India are currently significant markets – so between Russia and Iran – consider the far east sorted out. Lets not even discuss the existence of alternate energy in these markets.

3. The raising of sanctions on Iran – means that the U.S and other E.U nations can buy crude from Iran… The US is already the largest oil producer in the world- so unless its shale is cheaper than what Iran is peddling, it will be buying from Iran.

4. Saudi Arabia has refused to reduce its daily output, this combined with Iran’s capability of 6 million barrels per day(3x Nigeria’s capacity) by the way means the market will be awash with crude oil

5. Iran currently has 30 million barrels of crude oil stockpiled for sale – that’s Nigeria’s 15 day production waiting to be sold literally.

For Nigeria this has several implications

1. Our earnings will significantly decline because oil prices will drop – the demand is constant, while supply is growing. So less money to fund our budget which is bench-marked against a $52/ barrel price. As of July 14 2015 oil prices were around $51 per barrel at best.

2. A PIB – Petroleum Industry Bill that is not favorable to oil majors will see them exiting the country – If you work for an oil company if you have not dotted your I’s and crossed your T’s, now may be the time to buckle up. So the Senate that has been dragging feet on the PIB – well now you see.

3. We import refined products. While petrol etc would end up being cheaper, the fact that the value of the Naira is going to depreciate further will mean that we may end up paying more than the current N87 per litre despite crude oil prices likely dropping below $50 per barrel before the year runs out, the Naira will be useless against the dollar. Unless we fix our refining capacity and supply our own local consumption – the math will not make sense.

4. The dollar may reach N300 before the year runs out. We are heavily dependent on importation – so the price of everything is going to go up. Our paychecks aren’t going anywhere near upwards though.

Unless the US congress opposes the Iran deal, we are likely screwed. And if they oppose with the requirement of adjusting the deal, it only buys Nigeria some more time to try and arrange her house. Iran however is on a mission and at a minimum within its first month of exports may be able to do 1 million barrels per day supplying the markets Nigeria already supplies.

Now its looking like presenting bills to clients in dollars is the way forward – Yes it’s illegal, but is Nigeria well equipped to deal with what is coming her way? You must sit and wonder why we are still so un-imaginative as a country – these talks have been ongoing for two years at a minimum…so what gives?

Have you given this much thought? Or you just kind of blew it off as oh well great for Iran? Or finally America has stopped its hatred propaganda?

I had to break my 1 post a day rule, because I am honestly curious as to what folks are thinking.

NESTR
OAD

 

 

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10 Comments on Jeopardy – Can You See it? – Iran vs Nigeria

  1. Hmmmm….. it’s time to plan with great wisdom. Thanks for sharing.

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  2. www.thelmathinks.com // July 15, 2015 at 16:39 // Reply

    LOL @ without cast and binding. Last week I got talking with an old friend and I asked how many of the goals he had set out for himself this year had been accomplished. He immediately sobered up and said he needs to do much. That’s because although he made a first class in Statistics and works with Shell, things are about to change and not for the better. He said they (oil workers) have always been very comfortable and secure in their jobs and their futures but with the state of things in the country, things aren’t looking very good with regards to that sector. Therefore he and some of his colleagues have realized they need to sit up, start taking certification exams, courses, add more knowledge/value, diversify, just in case…

    It’s been sung for quite some time now that Nigeria needs to start exploring her other sectors, as oil just wouldn’t do it for us much longer. I also hear Buhari has reduced the number of licenses to be issued to oil import companies… Agriculture is something that should really be looked into, still most Nigerians can’t quite seem to embrace that yet, not quite sure why.

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  3. Oooh Shit..I don’t watch the news,this is horrible
    Oad I think you should be a minister or something cos you know a lot about the things that will likely affect this country which a lot of our so called leaders don’t know

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  4. We have been shouting diversify, diversify, diversify for the longest. But nooooo we must live and die on oil matter. Even with the oil, we have still refused to become efficient in this space. which way naija?

    rememeber our social studies days, we would recite all the many mineral and natural resources naija was blessed with. Somehow they are all a thing of the past.

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  5. Iran’s boom, Nigeria’s doom. This has been a long time coming.

    We (our leaders abi looters) just don’t care.

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  6. Ikoya adewale // July 15, 2015 at 20:50 // Reply

    We’ve been warned about this since, but we didn’t heed.. It’s time to go back to farming… Lemme go and buy hoe and cutlass before the price increases

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  7. This is what I have been ranting about since Monday. It just keeps getting worse,The stock market has crashed 9 freaking times in less than a month! The economy is really at it low and yet we are still trying to ‘figure’ out what to do. Let’s not talk about the dollar exchange yet because that one is so embarrassing. To be honest,things are not going to get better in the coming months until we get it together. We need to just explore other options and stop depending on oil.

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  8. The economy really needs to be restructured, no sector should be the lifeline, that being said even in this economy people are raking in millions. Its all about finding your niche, I think. Buhari and co should hold a brainstorming session

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  9. N300 naira to one dollar ke,that is ridiculous

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  10. Dr sheggz // July 17, 2015 at 19:57 // Reply

    Well OAD, i really do envy your foresight.. thats something our leaders lack. I feel our only solution is to look away from crude oil. Nigeria is too over blessed with mineral resources which are very useful to the whole world, for instance, nigeria produces enough tomatoes yet we import tomato paste. The government should create standard indusries and focus more on empowering the youth. Meanwhile, i’l advice every youth out there to learn a handwork. Who knows, it might be your saving grace 1 day.

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